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Risk and Humanitarian Situation

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Overview

The Philippines faces a range of natural and human-induced risks that significantly impact its communities and infrastructure. Geographically situated along the Pacific Ring of Fire, the country is highly susceptible to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Its location also makes it a frequent pathway for typhoons and storms, leading to floods and landslides that are often exacerbated by climate change. 

While the risk of conflict is generally low across most regions, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) continues to experience clashes.The COVID-19 pandemic and other disease outbreaks have further compounded the country's vulnerabilities, affecting public health, education, and the economy.

The Philippines is highly susceptible to earthquakes. On average, the country records about 20 earthquakes daily, though most are too minor to be felt and are only detected by seismographs. These seismic activities bring associated hazards such as ground shaking, ground rupture, liquefaction, earthquake-induced landslides, tsunamis, fires, and incidents involving hazardous materials.

In the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) conducted by PHIVOLCS, Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA), and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) from August 2002 to March 2004 and the updated Greater Metro Manila Area (GMMA) Risk Analysis Project (RAP) in 2013, one of the worst-case scenarios would be the one generated by the West Valley Fault, causing a 7.2 magnitude earthquake and leading to severe damage in Metro Manila. The earthquake could cause fatalities to around 52,000 individuals, and injuries to about 700,000. The study further projects the regional separation within Metro Manila due to pile up of debris, collapse of major transportation roads and bridges, and widespread fire. According to PHIVOLCS, the West Valley Fault has moved four times in the last 1,400 years and it moves roughly every 400 years. The last major earthquake generated by this fault was in 1658, or 361 years ago. With this, experts are saying that the next "Big One" could happen soon.

The Philippine Government through the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council developed the Harmonized National Contingency Plan for the Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake to provide effective, efficient, timely, and well-coordinated response mechanisms.

Typhoons are most common and destructive natural hazard in the Philippines. Annually, an average of twenty tropical cyclones enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Around eight or nine tropical cyclones make landfall and cause loss of life and extensive damage. Tropical Cyclones bring with them destructive winds and rainfall which may cause flooding, storm surges, and landslides in affected areas. Tropical cyclones regularly occur yearly but with climate change, stronger and stronger weather disturbances have been experienced in the past years. Around eight or nine tropical cyclones make landfall and cause loss of life and extensive damage. Historically, June signals the start of the typhoon season which runs until the end of the year, with July to November seeing the highest number of tropical cyclones.

Vulnerable areas remain to be the eastern seaboard of the country, with a possible shift in trend where typhoons tread southwards to Mindanao rather than the Bicol and Eastern Visayas regions.

Armed conflict in Mindanao has been a protracted emergency for the past decades and recently, tensions have been rising, particularly in the southern Philippines. While the scale of conflict and displacement has reduced significantly after the formation of BARMM government following ratification of the Bangsamoro Organic Law in January 2019, pockets of hot spots continue to cause disruption of basic social services and displacement of children and their respective families due to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) operation against non-state armed groups like the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighter (BIFF), Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), New People’s Army (NPA) or Rido (clan feud).

  • State and Non-State Armed Conflict: The BARMM stands out as an exception where conflict events, particularly between the Philippine Army and groups like the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, persist.
     
  • Marawi Siege Aftermath: The 2017 Marawi Siege was a significant conflict event, displacing nearly the entire population and leaving lasting impacts on the region.
     
  • Clan Violence: Rido, or clan-fueled violence, continues to displace thousands annually in BARMM, exacerbating social issues like child exploitation and violent extremism.
     
  • National Civilian Fatalities: The anti-drug campaign has reportedly resulted in a substantial number of civilian fatalities, with discrepancies between official figures and higher estimates from sources like ACLED.

A large number of children in the Philippines are still not vaccinated against measles and polio, which could lead to outbreaks of these diseases. The DOH and international partners are working to improve vaccination rates to protect children's health and prevent the spread of these illnesses.

For more details, see Immunization.

Located on the ‘Pacific Ring of Fire,’ the country lies at the intersection of two tectonic plates - the Eurasian and the Pacific. These plates move continually, causing both volcanic events and earthquakes. The country is home to roughly 300 volcanoes, of which 22 are classified as active and five are classified as highly active: Taal, Mayon, Bulusan, Kanlaon and Pinatubo. 

Displacement due to this unrest may range between three to six months, with PHIVOLCS projecting scenarios that include:  

  • Slow and sustained lava extrusion lasting a few months (Alert Level 4); 
  • Lava fountaining and lava flow with occasional explosions and PDCs within the 6KM PDZ (Alert Level 4);  
  • An explosive eruption with high-intensity lava fountain, long lava flows, and PDCs on all sectors that could exceed the 6 KM PDZ (Alert Level 5).  

Major floods and landslides are historically linked to storms and weather disturbances. Monsoon rains happens from June to December, bringing potentially heavy damages to low-lying, marginally developed areas in the Philippines. 

  • Pandemic Disruption: COVID-19 has led to widespread disruption, with over 4 million cases and 66,444 deaths. The strict lockdowns have resulted in economic losses and increased food insecurity.
  • Vaccination Efforts: As of March 2023, the Philippines has administered 179,046,746 vaccine doses, reflecting significant efforts to combat the pandemic.
  • Rural Livelihoods and Nutrition: The pandemic has taken a toll on rural livelihoods, with reported losses in income, job opportunities, and disruptions to food supply and healthcare services.
  • Education and Health Services Strain: School closures and strained health services have limited access to education and essential health services, disproportionately affecting children and women.

El Niño can deplete water supplies and cause significant agricultural losses. The last El Niño event from the last quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019 saw Metro Manila and neighboring areas experience water shortages, and agricultural damages nationwide amounted to around $8 billion.

There is an elevated risk of tsunamis in the Philippines due to it being an island nation with significant seismic activity. The coastlines are at the highest risk of tsunami impacts and most of the coastal areas have endured minimal impacts of a tsunami; although, the greater and more frequent risk in the Philippines is typhoon related flooding. Earthquake-induced tsunamis are possible with movements of the Manila Trench, and the Sulu and Cotabato Trenches. Rising sea levels due to climate change will also increase risks of tsunamis.

The Philippines has not endured any recent substantial tsunami-related impacts. A minor sea-level disturbance notice was issued in April 2023 for Catanduanes, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar following a 6.6 earthquake, but this was promptly cancelled and lifted. The last incident was recorded in 2002 where waves of up to 3 meters hit following a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in Mindanao.