Effects of COVID-19 on Child Poverty and Efficacy of Social Protection Responses in the Philippines: Component 1: Ex-Ante Micro Simulations on Child Poverty and Social Amelioration Programme

The outbreak of COVID-19 has rapidly morphed into an unprecedented health, economic, and geopolitical crisis. While the pandemic threatens to incur exceptional human costs around the world, the cost for low- and middle-income countries is expected to be even greater. As of mid-January 2021, COVID-19 has spread throughout the Philippines, with over 600,000 confirmed cases and 12,837 deaths. In addition to the direct health effects from the transmission of COVID-19, there is growing evidence that the pandemic, and the actions taken to control the virus, have caused severe economic and social effects.

According to the Asian Development Bank’s estimates, GDP growth in the country is projected at -10 per cent year-on-year. The World Bank projects this to be the worst-ever recession in the Southeast Asia region, taking a disproportionate toll on informal sector workers and pushing millions into poverty.

This study assessed the effects of COVID-19 on monetary poverty and multidimensional vulnerabilities in the Philippines, with a special focus on children. The study also assessed the impact of the Social Amelioration Programme (SAP) of the Philippine Government in terms of its ability to reduce poverty and alleviate deprivations in the light of COVID-19. The impacts of COVID-19 presented in this study were derived through scenario-based impact modelling. Considering three different scenarios for income contraction (10 per cent, 20 per cent, and 30 per cent), the study estimated the impacts of COVID-19 on overall monetary and child poverty in the Philippines.